Birkenhead United 4-2 Napier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — New Zealand - Bölgesel, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
3.59
Over Pick
65%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.29
No
36%
3.23
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
34%
4-5
34%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.5pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.1pp
35%
Under 2.5
24%
+11.0pp
65%
Over 2.5
76%
-11.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
73%
-8.9pp
36%
BTTS No
27%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birkenhead United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Napier EU Bookmakers 39%
+47% / +47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +55% / +55%
5.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+132% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birkenhead United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Napier
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
13.11.2022 Napier Napier 1-1 HT 1-1 Birkenhead United Birkenhead United YZLBÖL
POST-MATCH Birkenhead United vs Napier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birkenhead United saw off Napier 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Birkenhead United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

What was the final score of Birkenhead United vs Napier?

Birkenhead United 4-2 Napier in the New Zealand - Bölgesel on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birkenhead United vs Napier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birkenhead United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Birkenhead United 36%, draw 30%, Napier 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birkenhead United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birkenhead United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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