Oxford City 1-2 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 19 Nov 2024

📅19/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.29
6+ Goals
8%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 35% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.2pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford City EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.65/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.47
+18% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford City
1-2
AWAY Alfreton Town
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oxford City vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town edged past Oxford City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Alfreton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oxford City had 53% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 47%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Oxford City vs Alfreton Town?

Oxford City 1-2 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 19/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford City vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford City win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Oxford City 35%, draw 31%, Alfreton Town 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oxford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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