Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

Arsenal
5-0 HT 2-0
Crystal Palace
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 27% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.49
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
24.7
X/1
20%
3.26
X/2
7%
20.8
X/X
14%
7.04
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
6%
17.95
2/X
5%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-13.5pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.0pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.3pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 12%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
2.27/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.68
+14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +6%
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
491 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 71%
42.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.2 Crosses 12.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Crystal Palace
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.50 xG 1.04
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
474 Passes 321
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.08.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
19.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
05.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
04.04.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3-0 HT 2-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.10.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
19.05.2021 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-3 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
5-0
AWAY Crystal Palace
3.05 xG 0.35
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
487 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
42 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal swept aside Crystal Palace 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal had 61% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 39%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 3.05 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.17 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 59%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace 18%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
20 Jan 2024
20:30 Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Analysis →