Brentford 3-2 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.6
6+ Goals
14%
14.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.6 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
12%
4.01
X/2
11%
8.87
X/X
10%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.85
2/2
9%
6.91
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.18/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.48
+2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
23.7 Crosses 12.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 0.74
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
395 Passes 267
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
29.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 2-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
05.11.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-2 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
20.03.2021 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
12.12.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-3 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNCL
28.01.2020 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
3-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.20 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 Passes 400
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford nicked a narrow win over Nottingham Forest 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brentford as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brentford had 48% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 52%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.20 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brentford had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brentford and 1.17 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

Brentford 3-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brentford win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Brentford 48%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brentford), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brentford) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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