Udinese 2-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
45%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.89
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
13%
7.81
X/2
14%
4.25
X/X
13%
4.76
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.52
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -8%
1.24/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.17
-4% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
16.0 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Milan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.36
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
229 Passes 460
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.03.2023 Udinese Udinese 3-1 HT 2-1 Milan Milan İTA
13.08.2022 Milan Milan 4-2 HT 2-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
25.02.2022 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
11.12.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
03.03.2021 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
2-3
AWAY Milan
0.55 xG 2.72
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
156 Passes 471
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 22
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan nicked a narrow win over Udinese 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Udinese had 30% of the ball to Milan's 70%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.55 to 2.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milan's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Udinese had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Udinese and 1.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Milan?

Udinese 2-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Udinese 30%, draw 26%, Milan 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan)
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