Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.23
6+ Goals
12%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.95
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
11%
4.95
X/2
6%
6.78
X/X
17%
4.73
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
10%
4.61
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
44%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
23%
Away Win
29%
-6.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.99/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.49
+28% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
19.0 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 1.22
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
362 Passes 194
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
26 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
17.03.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2022 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
05.03.2022 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-2 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
07.11.2021 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
07.03.2021 Genk Genk 2-0 HT 2-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-1
AWAY Cercle Brugge
0.84 xG 3.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
255 Passes 180
63% Pass Accuracy 57%
24 Box Touches 40
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk and Cercle Brugge shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Genk had 56% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 44%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 0.84 to 3.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Genk and 0.83 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Genk 49%, draw 28%, Cercle Brugge 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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