Nova Venécia 1-0 Rio Branco-VN — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
62%
Over
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
No Pick
64%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
43%
4-5
20%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
34%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nova Venécia The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Branco-VN The Market 21%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -45% / -45%
1.93/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
+25% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +122% / -47%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Nova Venécia vs Rio Branco-VN
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nova Venécia nicked a narrow win over Rio Branco-VN 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nova Venécia as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

What was the final score of Nova Venécia vs Rio Branco-VN?

Nova Venécia 1-0 Rio Branco-VN in the Brazil - Capixaba on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nova Venécia vs Rio Branco-VN?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nova Venécia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Nova Venécia 55%, draw 24%, Rio Branco-VN 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nova Venécia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nova Venécia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BRCAP More Brazil - Capixaba
20 Jan 2024
01:00 Real Noroeste vs Jaguare Analysis →