20/01/2024
·
01:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
1-2
Real Noroeste vs Jaguare Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
Over Pick
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
38%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
12%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
48%
Home Win
52%
21%
Draw
23%
32%
Away Win
25%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Noroeste v Jaguare — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Real Noroeste
The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Jaguare
The Market 29%
+13% /
+13%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+30%
/
+3%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
50%
Ball Possession
50%
11
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
5
274 · 72%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
293 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Real Noroeste vs Jaguare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Jaguare edged past Real Noroeste 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Real Noroeste at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Real Noroeste vs Jaguare?
Real Noroeste 1-2 Jaguare in the Brazil - Capixaba on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Noroeste vs Jaguare?
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Noroeste win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Real Noroeste 48%, draw 21%, Jaguare 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Noroeste), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Real Noroeste)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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BRCAP
More Brazil - Capixaba
20 Jan 2024