Puebla 1-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Jan 2024

Puebla
1-2 HT 0-0
Necaxa
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.22
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.14
X/2
16%
6.16
X/X
9%
4.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.48/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.23
+11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.3 Crosses 16.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Puebla vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
15.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
17.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.04.2022 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.10.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.02.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Puebla 1-2 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.81 xG 1.18
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
393 Passes 235
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Puebla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Puebla at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Puebla had 60% of the ball to Necaxa's 40%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.81 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Puebla.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Puebla and 0.83 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Necaxa?

Puebla 1-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Puebla 41%, draw 24%, Necaxa 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Puebla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puebla) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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