Mafra 1-2 Benfica II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.0
2-3 Goals
45%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 26% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica II EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.44/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.47
-5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Benfica II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.18 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 307
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 3-2 HT 2-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
01.04.2023 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
18.10.2022 Benfica II Benfica II 5-1 HT 4-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
02.04.2022 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 2-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
07.11.2021 Benfica II Benfica II 1-3 HT 1-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
22.02.2021 Benfica II Benfica II 2-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
1-2
AWAY Benfica II
2.54 xG 2.22
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 8
386 Passes 192
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Benfica II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica II edged past Mafra 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Benfica II made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 62% of the ball to Benfica II's 38%, shots finished 14-24, expected goals 2.54 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mafra and 2.17 for Benfica II.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Benfica II?

Mafra 1-2 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Benfica II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mafra 38%, draw 27%, Benfica II 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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