Mirandes 3-2 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.48
Over
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.09
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
16%
5.64
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.85
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
14%
4.29
X/2
8%
7.57
X/X
18%
3.54
2/1
10%
33.5
2/2
11%
6.77
2/X
5%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.6pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirandes The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga The Market 27%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.41/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.27
+12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
17.6 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirandes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Malaga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 0.98
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 341
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 Malaga Malaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Mirandes Mirandes İS2
13.05.2023 Malaga Malaga 2-0 HT 1-0 Mirandes Mirandes İS2
27.08.2022 Mirandes Mirandes 1-3 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
30.01.2022 Mirandes Mirandes 3-0 HT 2-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
16.08.2021 Malaga Malaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Mirandes Mirandes İS2
01.03.2021 Mirandes Mirandes 1-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirandes
3-2
AWAY Malaga
2.48 xG 0.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
303 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mirandes vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirandes edged past Malaga 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mirandes as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mirandes had 47% of the ball to Malaga's 53%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.48 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mirandes's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mirandes and 1.00 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Mirandes vs Malaga?

Mirandes 3-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirandes vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirandes win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mirandes 45%, draw 31%, Malaga 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirandes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirandes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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