Como 4-1 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 Jan 2025

Como
4-1 HT 2-0
Udinese
📅20/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.9
2-3
45%
1.74
4-5
20%
3.77
6+
8%
16.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
13%
4.79
X/2
15%
7.19
X/X
8%
4.3
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
9%
5.45
2/X
11%
13.6
Value flag · 2/X at 13.6 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese The Market 30%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.76/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.34
+36% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
20.5 Crosses 18.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Udinese
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.68 xG 0.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
417 Passes 321
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTA
19.04.2003 Udinese Udinese 3-2 HT 1-0 Como Como İTA
18.12.2002 Como Como 0-2 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
4-1
AWAY Udinese
1.44 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
335 Passes 324
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Como vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como swept aside Udinese 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Como as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Como had 51% of the ball to Udinese's 49%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 1.44 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Udinese led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Como and 2.00 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Como vs Udinese?

Como 4-1 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Como win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Como 43%, draw 28%, Udinese 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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