Japonya U23 1-0 Güney Kore U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC U23 Championship, 20 Jan 2026

📅20/01/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.41
Over 2.5
45%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.29
No
48%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
1.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
6.19
6+ Goals
10%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
67%
-12.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
33%
+12.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
40%
+12.3pp
48%
BTTS No
60%
-12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Japonya U23 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Güney Kore U23 EU Bookmakers 26%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.12/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.07
-15% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
16.7 Crosses 10.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Japonya U23
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Güney Kore U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
2.15 xG 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
344 Passes 293
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2024 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 0-1 HT 0-0 Güney Kore U23 Güney Kore U23 AFCU23
07.10.2023 Güney Kore U23 Güney Kore U23 2-1 HT 1-1 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 AFCAG
12.06.2022 Güney Kore U23 Güney Kore U23 0-3 HT 0-1 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 AFCU23
10.08.2012 Güney Kore U23 Güney Kore U23 2-0 HT 1-0 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 OLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Japonya U23
1-0
AWAY Güney Kore U23
1.47 xG 0.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 0
331 Passes 396
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Japonya U23 vs Güney Kore U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Japonya U23 edged past Güney Kore U23 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Japonya U23 as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Japonya U23 had 46% of the ball to Güney Kore U23's 54%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.47 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Güney Kore U23 led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Japonya U23 and 1.25 for Güney Kore U23.

What was the final score of Japonya U23 vs Güney Kore U23?

Japonya U23 1-0 Güney Kore U23 in the AFC U23 Championship on 20/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Japonya U23 vs Güney Kore U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Japonya U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Japonya U23 42%, draw 31%, Güney Kore U23 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Japonya U23), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Japonya U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFCU23 More AFC U23 Championship
20 Jan 2026
18:30 Vietnam U23 vs Çin U23 Analysis →