Manchester City vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manchester City v Brentford — Team-Based Signals
Manchester City vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Manchester City
İNP
1-2
HT 1-1
Brentford
İNP
2-0
HT 1-0
Brentford
İNP
0-1
HT 0-1
Manchester City
İNP
Manchester City 1-0 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester City edged past Brentford 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Manchester City had 70% of the ball to Brentford's 30%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 2.45 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Manchester City and 0.80 for Brentford.
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Brentford?
Manchester City 1-0 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Brentford?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 58%, draw 22%, Brentford 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.