Manchester City 1-0 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Feb 2024

📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.22
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
20%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.89
Over 2.5
62%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.69
2-3 Goals
36%
2.15
4-5 Goals
30%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
27.5
X/1
12%
3.54
X/2
8%
27.0
X/X
8%
10.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.85
2/2
7%
19.4
2/X
6%
26.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
77%
-19.0pp
22%
Draw
14%
+7.2pp
20%
Away Win
8%
+11.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
31%
+7.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
69%
-7.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
2.26/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.87
+32% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +23%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
607 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
41.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
22.4 Crosses 13.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Brentford
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.72 xG 0.87
73% Ball Possession 27%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
608 Passes 171
89% Pass Accuracy 66%
37 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2024 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
28.05.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
12.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 1-2 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
09.02.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
29.12.2021 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
1-0
AWAY Brentford
2.45 xG 0.35
70% Ball Possession 30%
25 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
656 Passes 227
92% Pass Accuracy 75%
61 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City edged past Brentford 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Manchester City had 70% of the ball to Brentford's 30%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 2.45 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Manchester City and 0.80 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Brentford?

Manchester City 1-0 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 58%, draw 22%, Brentford 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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