Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 20 Feb 2024

📅20/02/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.7pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
0.99/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.34
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
16.8 Crosses 12.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.75 xG 0.80
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
14.04.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
07.08.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
12.02.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
24.10.2021 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
16.04.2021 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
268 Passes 263
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Bucaramanga nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Pasto 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Bucaramanga as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Bucaramanga had 51% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 49%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atletico Bucaramanga and 1.17 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?

Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Bucaramanga win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atletico Bucaramanga 42%, draw 29%, Deportivo Pasto 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Bucaramanga), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Bucaramanga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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