Mathare United 1-0 Police — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 20 Feb 2025

Mathare United
1-0 HT 0-0
Police
📅20/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

Mathare United vs Police Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.4
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
57%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
2.19
No
70%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
41%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
15%
+3.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
57%
Away Win
61%
-4.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.0pp
30%
BTTS Yes
42%
-11.3pp
70%
BTTS No
58%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mathare United v Police — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Police EU Bookmakers 66%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-12% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
203 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Mathare United vs Police Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Police
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
3 Total Shots 7
0 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.10.2024 Police Police 2-0 HT 1-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN
15.01.2022 Mathare United Mathare United 1-2 HT 1-0 Police Police KEN2
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs Police
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mathare United edged past Police 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Police at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (70%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Police led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mathare United and 2.00 for Police.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs Police?

Mathare United 1-0 Police in the Kenya - Premier League on 20/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Police?

Before kick-off our model rated an Police win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 19%, draw 24%, Police 57%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Police) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Police) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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