Cumbaya 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.0pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 43%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.84/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.94
-21% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
12.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
15.0 Crosses 16.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cumbaya
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.59 xG 1.15
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
258 Passes 277
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
30.09.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
30.04.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
31.07.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
21.07.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKVK
12.03.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 4-2 HT 2-1 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cumbaya
2-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.51 xG 1.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
300 Passes 281
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cumbaya vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cumbaya edged past Mushuc Runa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Cumbaya made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cumbaya had 51% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 49%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.51 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cumbaya and 1.60 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Cumbaya vs Mushuc Runa?

Cumbaya 2-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cumbaya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 37%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cumbaya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cumbaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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