Derby County U21 1-0 Middlesbrough U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 20 Mar 2026

Derby County U21
1-0 HT 0-0
Middlesbrough U21
📅20/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
INGPL2 – 2025/2026

Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.69
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
48%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
26%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
24%
+9.0pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.5pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-6.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.9pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County U21 v Middlesbrough U21 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough U21 EU Bookmakers 58%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.82/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-36% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
267 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
14.2 Crosses 28.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County U21 nicked a narrow win over Middlesbrough U21 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough U21 at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21?

Derby County U21 1-0 Middlesbrough U21 in the INGPL2 on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 33%, draw 19%, Middlesbrough U21 48%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough U21) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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