Ogre United vs Liepaja Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ogre United v Liepaja — Team-Based Signals
Ogre United 0-1 Liepaja — Actual Match Statistics
Liepaja edged past Ogre United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Ogre United had 30% of the ball to Liepaja's 70%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.40 to 2.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liepaja's control.
What was the final score of Ogre United vs Liepaja?
Ogre United 0-1 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 20/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ogre United vs Liepaja?
Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ogre United 22%, draw 24%, Liepaja 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.