Empoli 1-0 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 Apr 2024

Empoli
1-0 HT 1-0
Napoli
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Empoli vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.37
1/2
9%
22.3
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
6%
9.82
X/2
15%
4.0
X/X
13%
5.43
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.13
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Empoli v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 59%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.09/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.97
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +2%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 82%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
17.8 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Empoli vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Napoli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.76 xG 1.77
38% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
280 Passes 508
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
25.02.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
08.11.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
24.04.2022 Empoli Empoli 3-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.12.2021 Napoli Napoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
13.01.2021 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 2-1 Empoli Empoli İTK

Empoli 1-0 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
1-0
AWAY Napoli
0.92 xG 0.63
27% Ball Possession 73%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 8
168 Passes 563
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli squeezed past Napoli 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Empoli had 27% of the ball to Napoli's 73%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Empoli and 1.50 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Napoli?

Empoli 1-0 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Empoli 25%, draw 25%, Napoli 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Napoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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