Hellas Verona 1-0 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.57
Draw
25%
2.83
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.52
Over 2.5
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
5.34
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1 EV+ ✓
19%
5.44
X/2
10%
5.58
X/X
13%
3.43
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.22
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · X/1 at 5.44 — our 19% vs market 13.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
35%
+10.0pp
25%
Draw
32%
-6.6pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.28/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.17
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +33%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
20.3 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Udinese
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
292 Passes 296
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Udinese Udinese 3-3 HT 2-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
30.01.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
03.10.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
13.02.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 4-0 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
27.10.2021 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
07.02.2021 Udinese Udinese 2-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
1-0
AWAY Udinese
0.85 xG 1.74
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 6
228 Passes 223
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hellas Verona vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hellas Verona edged past Udinese 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hellas Verona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hellas Verona had 53% of the ball to Udinese's 47%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 0.85 to 1.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Udinese.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Udinese led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.50 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Udinese?

Hellas Verona 1-0 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hellas Verona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 45%, draw 25%, Udinese 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hellas Verona), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hellas Verona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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