FC Minsk 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒14:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Minsk EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.55/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.79
+19% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +68%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
434 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Minsk
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 FC Minsk FC Minsk 1-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
14.04.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
11.07.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
11.04.2015 FC Minsk FC Minsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Minsk
1-1
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Minsk and Naftan Novopolotsk shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was FC Minsk at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, FC Minsk had 45% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 55%, shots finished 6-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, FC Minsk had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Minsk and 0.00 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

FC Minsk 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Minsk 45%, draw 24%, Naftan Novopolotsk 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Minsk), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Minsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
20 Apr 2024
16:00 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk Analysis →
18:00 Slavia Mozyr vs Dinamo Brest Analysis →