Aucas 3-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Apr 2024

Aucas
3-1 HT 3-0
Emelec
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
1.46/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.32
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +19%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 74%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
18.0 Crosses 13.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Emelec
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.90 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
276 Passes 248
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.09.2023 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
10.04.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-1 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
12.09.2022 Aucas Aucas 1-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
27.07.2022 Emelec Emelec 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKVK
25.04.2022 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
02.08.2021 Emelec Emelec 2-2 HT 2-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
3-1
AWAY Emelec
1.87 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
271 Passes 255
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas saw off Emelec 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aucas had 51% of the ball to Emelec's 49%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.87 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aucas and 0.83 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Emelec?

Aucas 3-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aucas 44%, draw 27%, Emelec 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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