Manchester City 1-0 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 20 Apr 2024

Manchester City
1-0 HT 0-0
Chelsea
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Manchester City vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
24%
4.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 24% vs market 16.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
22%
4.0
X/2
8%
10.75
X/X
10%
6.28
2/1
9%
20.4
2/2
10%
7.61
2/X
5%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.1pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 22%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.48/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.06
+7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +134% / +79%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
460 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
8.1 Crosses 8.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Manchester City vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Chelsea
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.22 xG 1.32
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
570 Passes 373
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
39 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
12.11.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 4-4 HT 2-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
21.05.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
08.01.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-0 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea FAK
05.01.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
09.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNLK

Manchester City 1-0 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
1-0
AWAY Chelsea
0.93 xG 1.14
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
527 Passes 288
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City nicked a narrow win over Chelsea 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Manchester City had 62% of the ball to Chelsea's 38%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 0.93 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Manchester City and 0.83 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Chelsea?

Manchester City 1-0 Chelsea in the England - FA Cup on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 54%, draw 23%, Chelsea 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →