Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

Manchester City
1-1 HT 0-1
Chelsea
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester City vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.34
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.3
2-3 Goals
38%
2.21
4-5 Goals
28%
2.41
6+ Goals
15%
4.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.3
X/1
19%
3.78
X/2
5%
16.75
X/X
6%
8.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.25
2/2
11%
10.95
2/X
8%
18.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.25 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
69%
-9.9pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.2pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
2.21/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.30
+35% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -30%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
496 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
40.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.0 Crosses 10.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Manchester City vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Chelsea
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.93 xG 1.13
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
545 Passes 396
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 4-4 HT 2-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
21.05.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
08.01.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-0 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea FAK
05.01.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
09.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNLK
15.01.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
1-1
AWAY Chelsea
2.69 xG 1.44
70% Ball Possession 30%
31 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 1
647 Passes 249
91% Pass Accuracy 81%
79 Box Touches 17
47 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City and Chelsea shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Manchester City carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Manchester City had 70% of the ball to Chelsea's 30%, shots finished 31-9, expected goals 2.69 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Manchester City and 0.67 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Chelsea?

Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 59%, draw 19%, Chelsea 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
17 Feb 2024
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