Burnley 0-5 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

Burnley
0-5 HT 0-2
Arsenal
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.18
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
61%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
14%
7.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
14.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.05
1/X
6%
22.05
X/1
7%
18.75
X/2
20%
3.42
X/X
6%
7.6
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
32%
1.5
2/X
8%
21.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.05 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
11%
+8.1pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.7pp
61%
Away Win
71%
-9.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 75%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
0.77/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.87
-53% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +3%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 505 · 84%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.2
14.7 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.2

Burnley vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Arsenal
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.04 xG 1.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
243 Passes 464
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 34
21 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
23.01.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
18.09.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
06.03.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
13.12.2020 Arsenal Arsenal 0-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
02.02.2020 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Burnley 0-5 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
0-5
AWAY Arsenal
0.31 xG 2.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
232 Passes 522
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 44
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past Burnley 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Burnley had 35% of the ball to Arsenal's 65%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.31 to 2.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Burnley and 0.83 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Arsenal?

Burnley 0-5 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Burnley 19%, draw 20%, Arsenal 61%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
17 Feb 2024
15:30 Brentford vs Liverpool Analysis →
18:00 Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Analysis →
18:00 Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United Analysis →
18:00 Fulham vs Aston Villa Analysis →
18:00 Tottenham vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
20:30 Manchester City vs Chelsea Analysis →