Brentford 1-4 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

Brentford
1-4 HT 0-1
Liverpool
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.87
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
28%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.48
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.05
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
9%
10.15
X/2
17%
4.28
X/X
10%
6.62
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.0
2/X
6%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.05 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
22%
+8.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.5pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-8.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.2pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brentford v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 60%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.37/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.27
-2% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -12%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 82%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.6
18.0 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Brentford vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.29 xG 2.10
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
205 Passes 464
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
06.05.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
02.01.2023 Brentford Brentford 3-1 HT 2-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.01.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
25.09.2021 Brentford Brentford 3-3 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Brentford 1-4 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
1-4
AWAY Liverpool
1.69 xG 2.82
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 6
247 Passes 508
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool swept aside Brentford 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Brentford had 37% of the ball to Liverpool's 63%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.69 to 2.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Brentford and 2.20 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Liverpool?

Brentford 1-4 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Brentford 31%, draw 23%, Liverpool 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
17 Feb 2024
18:00 Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Analysis →
18:00 Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United Analysis →
18:00 Fulham vs Aston Villa Analysis →
18:00 Tottenham vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
18:00 Burnley vs Arsenal Analysis →
20:30 Manchester City vs Chelsea Analysis →