Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

Fulham
1-2 HT 0-1
Aston Villa
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.36
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 25% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.02
1/2
8%
23.3
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
7%
6.3
X/2
11%
5.16
X/X
9%
5.28
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
20%
3.04
2/X
8%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.7pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fulham v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
1.44/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.16
+14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
22.8 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Fulham vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Aston Villa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.91 xG 1.59
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
404 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 2-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
27.07.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa HAZPL
25.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
20.10.2022 Fulham Fulham 3-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
04.04.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
28.09.2020 Fulham Fulham 0-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
1-2
AWAY Aston Villa
1.55 xG 1.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
384 Passes 360
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa edged past Fulham 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Aston Villa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fulham had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.55 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fulham and 2.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fulham 34%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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