Lens vs Clermont Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lens v Clermont — Team-Based Signals
Lens vs Clermont Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Lens
FR1
0-4
HT 0-3
Lens
FR1
2-1
HT 0-1
Clermont
FR1
3-1
HT 2-1
Clermont
FR1
2-2
HT 1-1
Lens
FR1
1-1
HT 0-0
Clermont
FR2
Lens 1-0 Clermont — Actual Match Statistics
Lens squeezed past Clermont 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Lens had 48% of the ball to Clermont's 52%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.91 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lens's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lens and 0.83 for Clermont.
What was the final score of Lens vs Clermont?
Lens 1-0 Clermont in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lens vs Clermont?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lens 54%, draw 23%, Clermont 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.