Lens 1-0 Clermont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
24%
4.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 24% vs market 19.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.71
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.65
X/1
16%
3.56
X/2
10%
14.5
X/X
11%
6.49
2/1
11%
22.3
2/2
8%
11.45
2/X
7%
19.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Lens win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.6pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.0pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Clermont EU Bookmakers 17%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +4%
1.89/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.02
+14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
455 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.5 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Clermont
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
418 Passes 351
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Clermont Clermont 0-3 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
12.03.2023 Clermont Clermont 0-4 HT 0-3 Lens Lens FR1
12.11.2022 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 0-1 Clermont Clermont FR1
19.03.2022 Lens Lens 3-1 HT 2-1 Clermont Clermont FR1
01.12.2021 Clermont Clermont 2-2 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FR1
25.01.2020 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 Clermont Clermont FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
1-0
AWAY Clermont
1.91 xG 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
350 Passes 371
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lens vs Clermont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens squeezed past Clermont 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lens had 48% of the ball to Clermont's 52%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.91 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lens's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lens and 0.83 for Clermont.

What was the final score of Lens vs Clermont?

Lens 1-0 Clermont in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Clermont?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lens 54%, draw 23%, Clermont 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
20 Apr 2024
18:00 Nantes vs Rennes Analysis →