Samgurali 3-1 Dinamo Tbilisi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 20 Apr 2024

Samgurali
3-1 HT 1-1
Dinamo Tbilisi
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Georgia - Erovnuli Liga – 2024

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+7.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Samgurali v Dinamo Tbilisi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi EU Bookmakers 49%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.06
-11% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 451 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samgurali
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
29.10.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
25.10.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GURCK
19.08.2023 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 5-2 HT 2-1 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
10.05.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 2-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi GUR
13.03.2023 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 2-0 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR

Samgurali 3-1 Dinamo Tbilisi — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
3-1
AWAY Dinamo Tbilisi
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samgurali got the better of Dinamo Tbilisi 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Samgurali found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Samgurali had 41% of the ball to Dinamo Tbilisi's 59%, shots finished 11-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Tbilisi led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Samgurali and 2.17 for Dinamo Tbilisi.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

Samgurali 3-1 Dinamo Tbilisi in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Tbilisi win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 36%, draw 25%, Dinamo Tbilisi 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Tbilisi) ✓ Over 2.5
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