CD Victoria 0-1 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
49%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-2.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.4pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Victoria EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 29%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -22%
1.39/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.97
-17% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Victoria
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
3 Corners 8
25.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-4 HT 1-1 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
30.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
03.09.2023 CD Victoria CD Victoria 3-1 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.02.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
09.10.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-2 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
11.08.2022 CD Victoria CD Victoria 4-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH CD Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM nicked a narrow win over CD Victoria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was CD Victoria at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Victoria had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for CD Victoria and 1.17 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of CD Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM?

CD Victoria 0-1 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Victoria vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Victoria win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split CD Victoria 51%, draw 26%, Lobos UPNFM 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (CD Victoria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CD Victoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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