Lobos UPNFM 2-4 CD Victoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.4pp
33%
Draw
26%
+7.6pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Victoria EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.60/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.42
+8% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
414 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CD Victoria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
8 Corners 3
30.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
03.09.2023 CD Victoria CD Victoria 3-1 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.02.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
09.10.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-2 HT 1-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
11.08.2022 CD Victoria CD Victoria 4-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
07.04.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-3 HT 0-2 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs CD Victoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Victoria got the better of Lobos UPNFM 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 33% / 28% — and on the day CD Victoria made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Victoria led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 2.00 for CD Victoria.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs CD Victoria?

Lobos UPNFM 2-4 CD Victoria in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs CD Victoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 39%, draw 33%, CD Victoria 28%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lobos UPNFM), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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