Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Kamatamare Sanuki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kamatamare Sanuki EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.33/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.38
-4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
214 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kamatamare Sanuki
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.11.2023 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
17.06.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 1-0 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki JAP3
27.08.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki JAP3
13.03.2022 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki 1-2 HT 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
20.09.2014 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki JAP2
22.03.2014 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki 0-5 HT 0-3 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2-1
AWAY Kamatamare Sanuki
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kamatamare Sanuki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Kamatamare Sanuki 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 47% of the ball to Kamatamare Sanuki's 53%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.17 for Kamatamare Sanuki.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kamatamare Sanuki?

Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Kamatamare Sanuki in the Japan - J3 League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kamatamare Sanuki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 43%, draw 27%, Kamatamare Sanuki 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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