Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Apr 2024

Zaglebie Lubin
1-2 HT 0-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 25% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.98
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
12%
12.65
X/1
8%
6.11
X/2
18%
5.35
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
14%
3.3
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.40/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.62
-13% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 76%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
22.2 Crosses 13.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.58 xG 1.38
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
326 Passes 350
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
18.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
04.09.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
03.04.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
01.10.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
06.03.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.86 xG 2.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
25 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 4
355 Passes 375
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
38 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 49% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 51%, shots finished 25-17, expected goals 1.86 to 2.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 32%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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