Danubio 1-1 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.12/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.04
-7% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Danubio
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Cerro Largo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Danubio Danubio 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
18.02.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
01.10.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
08.05.2022 Danubio Danubio 2-0 HT 2-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
16.01.2021 Danubio Danubio 0-3 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.02.2020 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
1-1
AWAY Cerro Largo
62% Ball Possession 38%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Danubio vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio and Cerro Largo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Danubio had 62% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 38%, shots finished 6-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Danubio and 1.00 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

Danubio 1-1 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Danubio 37%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Danubio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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