Boston River 1-3 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
25%
+0.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
49%
Away Win
48%
+1.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boston River EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 52%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.21/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.74
+16% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boston River
1W-1D-4L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Boston River Boston River URUK
02.09.2023 Boston River Boston River 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
16.07.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 2-0 Boston River Boston River URU
20.02.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 1-0 Boston River Boston River URU
13.10.2022 Boston River Boston River 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
29.09.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Boston River Boston River URUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boston River
1-3
AWAY CA Penarol
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boston River vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol beat Boston River 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Boston River had 47% of the ball to CA Penarol's 53%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Boston River and 1.17 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Boston River vs CA Penarol?

Boston River 1-3 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boston River vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Boston River 25%, draw 25%, CA Penarol 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
20 Apr 2024
16:00 Danubio vs Cerro Largo Analysis →