Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-1 Western United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 20 Apr 2025

Wellington Phoenix (K)
1-1 HT 0-0
Western United (K)
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Western United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.21
Over Pick
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
41%
4-5
27%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix (K) v Western United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.85/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.11
+1% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 80%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
14.5 Crosses 23.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.5

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Western United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Western United (K)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.13 xG 2.41
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
298 Passes 228
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
01.11.2024 Western United (K) Western United (K) 4-2 HT 4-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW
18.02.2024 Western United (K) Western United (K) 3-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW
12.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) 3-1 HT 2-0 Western United (K) Western United (K) AVUSTW

Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-1 Western United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
1-1
AWAY Western United (K)
1.16 xG 1.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 12
281 Passes 279
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Western United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix (K) and Western United (K) shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 50% of the ball to Western United (K)'s 50%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.16 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Western United (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 2.67 for Western United (K).

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Western United (K)?

Wellington Phoenix (K) 1-1 Western United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Western United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western United (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 37%, draw 25%, Western United (K) 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western United (K)), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western United (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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