Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
47%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 59%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -57% / -57%
1.10/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.97
+25% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / -48%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
19.6 Crosses 30.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
254 Passes 317
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
13.02.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-0 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
09.10.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-1 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
09.01.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.09.2021 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 1-2 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
22.02.2019 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
1-2
AWAY Hellas Verona
0.59 xG 2.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 245
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hellas Verona edged past Salernitana 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hellas Verona as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salernitana had 53% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 47%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.59 to 2.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hellas Verona's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salernitana had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Salernitana and 1.00 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?

Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hellas Verona win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 25%, draw 28%, Hellas Verona 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hellas Verona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hellas Verona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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