Cruz Azul 1-2 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.18
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.9
X/2
10%
6.29
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
14%
4.53
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +22%
1.36/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.17
-10% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.5 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterrey
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
334 Passes 348
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
07.04.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
28.08.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
15.01.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-3 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
16.10.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
13.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-2
AWAY Monterrey
1.69 xG 2.49
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
172 Passes 469
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey edged past Cruz Azul 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 31% of the ball to Monterrey's 69%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.69 to 2.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.33 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Monterrey?

Cruz Azul 1-2 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 42%, draw 28%, Monterrey 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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