Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alianza Lima v Deportivo Garcilaso — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Alianza Lima
PER
3-2
HT 2-0
Deportivo Garcilaso
PER
Alianza Lima 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima edged past Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Alianza Lima had 64% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 36%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 2.10 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Lima's control.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Lima 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 59%, draw 22%, Deportivo Garcilaso 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.