FC Tulsa 2-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 24% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 22%
+12% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.93/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
+18% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.6 Crosses 12.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Miami FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.74 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 350
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.03.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
11.08.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
05.06.2022 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
2-1
AWAY Miami FC
1.87 xG 0.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
238 Passes 259
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa squeezed past Miami FC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 48% of the ball to Miami FC's 52%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.87 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Tulsa's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tulsa and 0.50 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Miami FC?

FC Tulsa 2-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 49%, draw 24%, Miami FC 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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