Sarpsborg 08 1-1 Brann — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
42%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.96
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.39
No
44%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
7.32
2-3 Goals
42%
2.23
4-5 Goals
25%
2.44
6+ Goals
10%
4.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.91
1/2
9%
18.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
8.37
X/2
10%
4.76
X/X
6%
7.14
2/1
5%
30.0
2/2
22%
2.3
2/X
10%
13.7
Value flag · X/1 at 8.37 — our 17% vs market 8.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+7.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
42%
Away Win
51%
-9.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.2pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Brann EU Bookmakers 56%
-6% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.08/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.18
-36% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 83%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.6
20.0 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Brann
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 Passes 400
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Brann Brann 1-0 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
13.05.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-1 HT 2-0 Brann Brann NOR
12.12.2021 Brann Brann 2-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
13.06.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-0 HT 0-0 Brann Brann NOR
06.12.2020 Brann Brann 1-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
02.07.2020 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 0-1 HT 0-1 Brann Brann NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1-1
AWAY Brann
2.63 xG 0.96
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 7
213 Passes 294
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Brann
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 and Brann shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brann at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 44% of the ball to Brann's 56%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.63 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brann led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.00 for Brann.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Brann?

Sarpsborg 08 1-1 Brann in the Norway - Eliteserien on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Brann?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brann win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 35%, draw 23%, Brann 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brann), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brann) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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