Meizhou Hakka 1-3 Beijing Guoan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.91
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.6
X/1
14%
6.29
X/2
13%
5.39
X/X
12%
5.38
2/1
5%
27.0
2/2
14%
3.16
2/X
4%
12.5
Value flag · 1/X at 12.6 — our 13% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-6.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.4pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meizhou Hakka EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 45%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.08/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.29
+50% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -17%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 82%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.5 Crosses 14.1
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meizhou Hakka
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Beijing Guoan
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.75 xG 1.47
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
214 Passes 397
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 3-2 HT 0-2 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
12.07.2023 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka 3-1 HT 3-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNSL
15.04.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 1-1 HT 0-1 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
07.07.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 0-0 HT 0-0 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
17.06.2022 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka 2-2 HT 1-2 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meizhou Hakka
1-3
AWAY Beijing Guoan
1.65 xG 0.74
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
355 Passes 408
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Meizhou Hakka vs Beijing Guoan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan saw off Meizhou Hakka 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Beijing Guoan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Meizhou Hakka had 47% of the ball to Beijing Guoan's 53%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.65 to 0.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Meizhou Hakka.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Meizhou Hakka and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan.

What was the final score of Meizhou Hakka vs Beijing Guoan?

Meizhou Hakka 1-3 Beijing Guoan in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meizhou Hakka vs Beijing Guoan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Meizhou Hakka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Meizhou Hakka 38%, draw 29%, Beijing Guoan 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Meizhou Hakka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Meizhou Hakka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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