Cagliari 0-2 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.38
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.84
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.37
X/2
10%
7.22
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.76
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.57/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.28
+5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
26.4 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Empoli
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 1.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
324 Passes 301
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 24
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
30.12.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
13.02.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
22.09.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
20.01.2019 Cagliari Cagliari 2-2 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
19.08.2018 Empoli Empoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
0-2
AWAY Empoli
2.30 xG 0.84
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
354 Passes 198
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli got the better of Cagliari 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cagliari at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cagliari had 61% of the ball to Empoli's 39%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.30 to 0.84 — on chances, Cagliari could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cagliari and 1.17 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Empoli?

Cagliari 0-2 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 44%, draw 28%, Empoli 28%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cagliari) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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