Empoli 0-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.98
6+ Goals
11%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
12%
4.81
X/2
12%
6.35
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
14%
4.71
2/X
5%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.63/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.50
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.3 Crosses 21.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
13.02.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
22.09.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
20.01.2019 Cagliari Cagliari 2-2 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
19.08.2018 Empoli Empoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
14.05.2017 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 3-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-1
AWAY Cagliari
1.46 xG 0.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
362 Passes 281
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 15
33 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari edged past Empoli 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Empoli at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Empoli had 56% of the ball to Cagliari's 44%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.57 — the balance of chances actually favoured Empoli.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Empoli and 1.00 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Cagliari?

Empoli 0-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Empoli 41%, draw 26%, Cagliari 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Empoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Empoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
3 Mar 2024
14:30 Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo Analysis →
17:00 Frosinone vs Lecce Analysis →
20:00 Atalanta vs Bologna Analysis →
22:45 Napoli vs Juventus Analysis →