Atalanta 1-2 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Mar 2024

Atalanta
1-2 HT 1-0
Bologna
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.45
X/2
13%
7.3
X/X
11%
4.52
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
8%
5.5
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Bologna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.53/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.14
+12% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.4 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atalanta vs Bologna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bologna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.52 xG 0.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
371 Passes 393
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
08.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
09.01.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.03.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
28.08.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
25.04.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 5-0 HT 2-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Atalanta 1-2 Bologna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
1-2
AWAY Bologna
1.35 xG 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
446 Passes 392
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna squeezed past Atalanta 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atalanta had 55% of the ball to Bologna's 45%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.35 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Bologna?

Atalanta 1-2 Bologna in the Italy - Serie A on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 45%, draw 27%, Bologna 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta)
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