Frosinone 1-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Mar 2024

Frosinone
1-1 HT 1-0
Lecce
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Frosinone vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.29
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.14
1/2
11%
33.5
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
7%
5.0
X/2
11%
6.53
X/X
16%
4.42
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
11%
4.6
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v Lecce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 33%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.38/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.41
+50% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +55%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.9 Crosses 16.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Frosinone vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Lecce
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 Passes 286
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 1-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
02.04.2022 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
20.11.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
20.03.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 0-3 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
12.12.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 1-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
13.04.2014 Lecce Lecce 2-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTC

Frosinone 1-1 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
1-1
AWAY Lecce
1.33 xG 1.23
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 8
328 Passes 140
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
36 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone and Lecce couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Frosinone had 65% of the ball to Lecce's 35%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.33 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Frosinone and 1.67 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Lecce?

Frosinone 1-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 40%, draw 28%, Lecce 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Frosinone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Frosinone) ✓ Under 2.5
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