Hellas Verona 1-0 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.55
6+ Goals
11%
14.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.55 — our 25% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.26
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
19%
5.08
X/2
11%
6.19
X/X
11%
4.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
27.0
2/2
15%
4.31
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 11% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.31/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.28
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
20.4 Crosses 18.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hellas Verona
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Sassuolo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.55 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
303 Passes 345
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-1 HT 1-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
08.04.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
24.10.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
16.01.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-4 HT 0-2 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
21.08.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-3 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
13.03.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-2 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hellas Verona
1-0
AWAY Sassuolo
0.36 xG 0.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 10
230 Passes 228
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
9 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hellas Verona edged past Sassuolo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hellas Verona as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hellas Verona had 49% of the ball to Sassuolo's 51%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.36 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hellas Verona and 2.33 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo?

Hellas Verona 1-0 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hellas Verona win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 41%, draw 25%, Sassuolo 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hellas Verona) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hellas Verona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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