Napoli 2-1 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.69
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.69
X/2
15%
6.47
X/X
14%
3.81
2/1
12%
31.0
2/2
12%
5.08
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Napoli win — 38%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.67/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.28
+66% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
17.9 Crosses 12.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Juventus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.54 xG 1.15
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
528 Passes 310
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Juventus Juventus 1-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
23.04.2023 Juventus Juventus 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
13.01.2023 Napoli Napoli 5-1 HT 2-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
06.01.2022 Juventus Juventus 1-1 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
11.09.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
07.04.2021 Juventus Juventus 2-1 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-1
AWAY Juventus
2.11 xG 1.66
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
581 Passes 198
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli edged past Juventus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Napoli made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Napoli had 71% of the ball to Juventus's 29%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 2.11 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Juventus?

Napoli 2-1 Juventus in the Italy - Serie A on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Napoli 38%, draw 28%, Juventus 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5
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