Augsburg 2-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Sep 2024

Augsburg
2-3 HT 1-2
Mainz 05
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.15
6+ Goals
13%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.17
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
9%
12.35
X/1
14%
5.25
X/2
16%
6.37
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
4.17
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -17%
1.48/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.72
+6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.7 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.08 xG 2.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
250 Passes 319
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
23.09.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
11.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
20.08.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
06.04.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
22.10.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-1 HT 3-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 2-3 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-3
AWAY Mainz 05
2.46 xG 1.11
73% Ball Possession 27%
29 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 1
459 Passes 116
85% Pass Accuracy 57%
52 Box Touches 6
48 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 squeezed past Augsburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Augsburg had 73% of the ball to Mainz 05's 27%, shots finished 29-5, expected goals 2.46 to 1.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured Augsburg.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 2.00 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Mainz 05?

Augsburg 2-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 44%, draw 26%, Mainz 05 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →